Thursday, July 31, 2008

Huh? What's he taking about?

A Wall Street Journal reporter wrote a piece on hedge funds looking to find bargains in beaten down bank stocks. At one point he wrote this paragraph about the hedge fund investors:

"Since it is harder for investors to borrow money at reasonable rates, they won't be eager to be buyers unless prices are marked down further. That all suggests troubles in the financial market will get worse before they get better. And most of the money being raised seems aimed at investing in distressed companies, not securities, suggesting more write-downs of mortgage-related assets if housing doesn't perk up."

What the h--- does that mean and how does he get from Point A to Point B? If you can explain that, you're smarter than I am. Does this validate the snide comments we hear about financial reporters or am I missing something here?

As always, your comments are welcome.

Monday, July 28, 2008

Cynical humor comes with a grain of truth...

Compliments of a friend, some thoughts for you to consider in a quiet moment, or not:

1. Borrow money from pessimists. They don't expect it back.
2. 82.7% of statistics are made up on the spot. No, wait, that's 87.2%.
3. The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.
4. A conclusion is the place where you got tired of thinking.

OK, enough of that for now - until the next time i don't have anything to say...

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Pay for Performance - One more time


The Wall Street Journal reported in Managing: Theory & Practice (July 7, 2008, p. B6) on the success of one company in providing flexible compensation choices to its employees. The byline called it a “throwback to (the) ‘80s.” In an era of scarcity for high quality workers – despite the unemployment numbers you read – why would such an idea be so out of favor? While the article focused on one particular arrangement where managers could opt for a lower salary in return for a higher bonus potential, there are lots of incentive options that employers could use to motivate employees to the benefit of all, yet most companies don’t even try. Pay-for-Performance is an idea with profound potential, yet it is not widely used outside the sales force.

We think a significant reason is the lack of trust that has developed between employees and employers over the past couple decades. Just ask any sales person what goes through his/her mind when their company announces any changes to their compensation plan and you’ll hear something like: “OK, I wonder what they’re taking away this time?” I wrote about this a few years ago, and urged company managements to consider some form of open book philosophy to re-establish some of that lost trust, especially when it comes to calculations that affect their paychecks, like bonus plans, profit sharing plans, and the like. The reality is that companies have not earned that trust in many cases – often adjusting bonus plans to limit success payments, crafting elaborate plans to favor top executives despite ostensibly offering equitable sharing of rewards, promising a lot but delivering a lot less, and so on.

It is true that a successful incentive compensation plan needs to be adapted to the level of employee management is seeking to motivate – factory workers will not be moved by the same options that move vice presidents. It is also true that responsive incentive plans are more work to develop and administer than straight salary plans, and the more responsive the plan the more administration it will require. But once you get past the design stage, most of the work is around performance evaluation: goal setting, getting buy-in, evaluating results and monetizing those results in a credible way. Performance evaluation that should be taking place anyway, don’t you think?

We have a long-time client whose plant work force has produced a consistent 15%+ increase in productivity per person, with roughly half the overtime compared to previously, with the implementation of a simple profit sharing bonus plan that was clearly tied to getting product shipped to customers.

Here’s what we’ve experienced:
· An employer who acts as if their employees should be adequately motivated by having a job and a salary will consistently get these results: high turnover and mediocre performance.
· An employer who is willing to share the fruits of above average performance with the workers who delivered that above average performance will continue to get above average performance, often dramatically above.
· An employer who wants their employees to accept a loosely defined methodology for determining incentive pay without significant transparency may be rewarded with skepticism and loosely delivered performance.
· Profits are produced by employees who want to do a good job, who feel their efforts are contributing to the company’s profits, and who have the clear sense that the company appreciates their contribution to those profits.

As always, your feedback is welcome.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Did a whole industry forget to plan ahead?


First, this post is not about the banking industry, or the securities industry (regardless of the terrible market performance lately), or the mortgage banking industry, or even the much maligned morgage brokers.
It's about the airline industry.
An industry strategist was quoted recently as saying "many airline business models cease to work at $135-a-barrel oil prices." I guess they're not in much better shape at $145.
So what happened? We've known that oil prices were at risk since at least 2001 if not as far back as the 80's. And any industry that relies on fuel oil to fly a piece of metal machinery weighing upwards of a million pounds would want to have risk management issues resolved long before survival was at issue, wouldn't they? So why are they now trying to nit pick their customers with extra charges for checking baggage, food in flight, cutting schedules, etc.? Why is the Wall Street Journal writing about the possibility of their postponing the purchase of new planes - the fuel efficient ones, no less? Either they didn't plan ahead or they didn't like what their planning told them so they chose to ignore it. Oh, you say they saw it but were too poor to do anything about it? Rubbish! If you think your survival is at issue, you put up everything you have to prevent a bad outcome. Survival is the basic instinct, remember? If you don't do that, you either don't think it will happen or you think someone will bail you out if it gets too bad. And if you're big enough, you may get a bail out from the biggest free-of-charge insurance company in the country, the US government.
Airlines regularly go into bankruptcy, but none of the big ones ever stop flying, in spite of what seems from here like very poor strategic planning. What would happen if one of them actually put their planes on the ground and laid off all their pilots? Would Uncle come to the rescue?
I think we can survive with one or two fewer airlines, don't you?
I welcome your comments.